Is there a correlation between chart rankings and app developer stock price?

We conducted an analysis to determine the correlation between a publicly traded app developer's rankings on the Top Grossing chart and the fluctuation in their NASDAQ stock price. For the purpose of this analysis, we compared the following variables:

・Stock price fluctuation
We used 4 different metrics indicating the end-of-trading daily price, as well as the Moving Average (average rate measured over a period of time) for 5, 25 and 75 days (MA5/MA25/MA75)
・App Store/Google Play Top Grossing ranking fluctuation
Top Grossing ranks in both stores for all charting apps by a given developer
・Estimated App Store/Google Play revenue
Projected developer revenue based on Metaps market data

Glu Mobile

The release of "Kim Kardasian: Hollywood" last year gave Glu a bonafide hit, following up on the recent success of their "Deer Hunter 2014" release. 

 

Pandora

Competing with "Spotify" for the #1 music streaming app, "Pandora" consistently ranks in the top 10 Grossing charts on both the App Store and Google Play. 

EA

Not solely a mobile app developer, but EA has a multitude of titles charting on both the free and paid app charts.

King

Global smash hit "Candy Crush Saga" continues its successful run on Top Grossing charts around the world, and other King titles such as "Candy Crush Soda Saga" and "Farm Heroes Saga" are also ranked high on the Top Grossing charts.

 

Ranking : Stock price correlation

A comparison of the above 4 companies reveals varied correlation between Top Grossing rankings and stock price. We found a very high correlation between Top Grossing ranking and stock price for Glu Mobile. The opposite can be said for King, where we found very weak correlation.

With varied results, we did not find a definitive correlation between app rankings and stock price for app developers listed on the NASDAQ. We conducted an identical study of Japanese developers listed in Japan, with similar varied results for developers GungHo, mixi, COLOPL, Marvelous and KLab (original report in Japanese only). 

 

Metaps is an app monetization platform using AI & big data to maximize app revenue and optimize campaign performance. Metaps Analytics provides insight into the app market, highlighting recent trends and serving as a tool to forecast future movements on the App Store and Google Play charts.

https://analytics.metaps.com/
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